2020 Predictions: Spring 2018
Methodology Note: This list is a collaborative effort between myself and my brother, Caleb Smith (a CNU Political Science graduate, whose blog you can find HERE). After identifying potential Democratic and Republican nominees, Caleb and I each ranked the likelihood of those individuals running for and winning their respective party’s nomination for candidacy for President of the United States in the 2020 national election. We then averaged our rankings to develop this final set of 2020 Presidential Nominee Predictions. Democrats are listed first, then Republicans.
Spring 2018 Note: It is, of course, very early to be thinking about an election that is over 900 days away. And yet many of these candidates are already laying the groundwork for their campaigns. This is happening in ways seen (book tours and visits to early primary states) and unseen (private planning with advisors and donors). With the first candidacy announcements likely less than a year away, the political jockeying is already happening, making now a relevant time to begin periodically examining the field of potential nominees. We plan to do this quarterly in 2018, before ramping things up a bit in 2019, so stay tuned!!
Democratic Dark-Horses:
35. Jeff Merkley, 34. Tim Ryan, 33. John Delaney
32. Mitch Landrieu, 31. Eric Garcetti, 30. Doug Jones
29. Bill de Blasio, 28. Jerry Brown, 27. Steve Bullock
26. Jay Inslee, 25. Mark Warner, 24. Michelle Obama
23. Hillary Clinton, 22. Sheryl Sandberg, 21. Dwayne Johnson
Democratic Also-Rans:
20. Terry McAuliffe, former Governor of Virginia
19. Eric Holder, former Attorney General of the U.S.
18. Tulsi Gabbard, Representative from Hawaii
17. Martin O’Malley, former Governor of Maryland
16. Tammy Duckworth, Senator from Illinois
15. Howard Schultz, Billionaire Entrepreneur
14. Tim Kaine, Senator from Virginia
13. Andrew Cuomo, Governor of New York
12. Chris Murphy, Senator from Connecticut
11. Oprah Winfrey, Billionaire Entrepreneur
Democratic Contenders:
10. Sherrod Brown
Senator from Ohio
Ethan’s Rank: 6
Caleb’s Rank: 12
Caleb’s Rank: 12
Senator from Minnesota
Ethan’s Rank: 9
Caleb’s Rank: 8
Caleb’s Rank: 8
Former Secretary of Housing & Urban Development
Ethan’s Rank: 10
Caleb’s Rank: 7
Caleb’s Rank: 7
Senator from Massachusetts
Ethan’s Rank: 7
Caleb’s Rank: 6
6. Deval Patrick
Caleb’s Rank: 6
Former Governor of Massachusetts
Ethan’s Rank: 2
Caleb’s Rank: 9
Caleb’s Rank: 9
Senator from New Jersey
Ethan’s Rank: 8
Caleb’s Rank: 2
4. Kamala Harris
Caleb’s Rank: 2
Senator from California
Ethan’s Rank: 5
Caleb’s Rank: 5
Caleb’s Rank: 5
Senator from Vermont
Ethan’s Rank: 4
Caleb’s Rank: 4
2. Kristen Gillibrand
Caleb’s Rank: 4
Senator from New York
Ethan’s Rank: 3
Caleb’s Rank: 3
Caleb’s Rank: 3
Former Vice President of the United States
Ethan’s Rank: 1
Caleb’s Rank: 1
Caleb’s Rank: 1
Republican Dark-Horses:
12. Evan McMullin, 11. Nikki Haley, 10. Marco Rubio
9. Ben Sasse, 8. Ted Cruz, 7. Mitt Romney
Republican Also-Rans:
6. Bob Corker, Senator from Tennessee
5. Mike Pence, Vice President of the U.S.
4. Jeff Flake, Senator from Arizona
Republican Contenders:
Billionaire Entrepreneur
Ethan’s Rank: 2
Caleb’s Rank: 5
Caleb’s Rank: 5
Governor of Ohio
Ethan’s Rank: 3
Caleb’s Rank: 3
1. Donald Trump
Caleb’s Rank: 3
President of the United States
Ethan’s Rank: 1
Caleb’s Rank: 1
Caleb’s Rank: 1
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