2020 Presidential Nominee Predictions: Spring 2018

Unscripted Politics
2020 Predictions: Spring 2018

Methodology Note: This list is a collaborative effort between myself and my brother, Caleb Smith (a CNU Political Science graduate, whose blog you can find HERE). After identifying potential Democratic and Republican nominees, Caleb and I each ranked the likelihood of those individuals running for and winning their respective party’s nomination for candidacy for President of the United States in the 2020 national election. We then averaged our rankings to develop this final set of 2020 Presidential Nominee Predictions. Democrats are listed first, then Republicans.

Spring 2018 Note: It is, of course, very early to be thinking about an election that is over 900 days away. And yet many of these candidates are already laying the groundwork for their campaigns. This is happening in ways seen (book tours and visits to early primary states) and unseen (private planning with advisors and donors). With the first candidacy announcements likely less than a year away, the political jockeying is already happening, making now a relevant time to begin periodically examining the field of potential nominees. We plan to do this quarterly in 2018, before ramping things up a bit in 2019, so stay tuned!!

Democratic Dark-Horses:

35. Jeff Merkley, 34. Tim Ryan, 33. John Delaney
32. Mitch Landrieu, 31. Eric Garcetti, 30. Doug Jones

29. Bill de Blasio, 28. Jerry Brown, 27. Steve Bullock

26. Jay Inslee, 25. Mark Warner, 24. Michelle Obama

23. Hillary Clinton, 22. Sheryl Sandberg, 21. Dwayne Johnson

Democratic Also-Rans:

My Top 10 Movies of 2017

Unscripted Movie Reviews
2017 was a fun year at the movie theater, with a variety of engaging films filling up the Top 10. So let's get to it, with some quick house-cleaning to do first...

A Blast from the Past: My Top 10 Movies of 2016 - 2015 - 2014 - 2013 - 2012 - 2011 - 2010 - 2009

10 Potential Listbusters (some films I didn't see, but heard were good): All the Money in the World, Call Me By Your Name, The Florida Project, I Tonya, Lady Bird, Molly’s Game, Mudbound, Phantom Thread, Roman J. Israel Esq., Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri

15 Honorable Mentions: American Made, Annabelle: Creation, Boss Baby, Darkest Hour, The Greatest Showman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, IT, Logan, Logan Lucky, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, The Shape of Water, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

And now onto the feature presentation…

My Top 10 Movies of 2017: 

2018 Post-SuperBowl Power Rankings

Unscripted NFL Power Rankings
2018 Post-SuperBowl

Previous Power Rankings:

2017 Playoffs

Post-SuperBowl Note: These rankings are an evaluation of teams based on where they are right now, in light of the 2017 playoffs and SuperBowl 52. They are not a projection of who will win the next SuperBowl, or even who will win in Week 1 of the 2018 season, but instead reflect who I believe would win if the teams played each other on a neutral field today.

On the bubble:

16. Ravens, 15. 49ers, 14. Cowboys

13. Seahawks, 12. Chiefs, 11. Titans

The Top 10:

2017 Playoff Power Rankings

Unscripted NFL Power Rankings
2017 Playoffs

Previous Power Rankings:

Week 17, Week 16, Week 15, Week 14

Week 13, Week 12, Week 11, Week 10,

Midseason (Week 9), Week 8, Week 7,

Week 6, Week 5, Week 4, Week 3, Week 2,

Week 1, Preseason, Offseason, Post-Super Bowl

Season-End Recap: Before the last rankings of the 2016 season and the playoffs leading to SuperBowl 52, let's take a quick look back at the year in Unscripted rankings: 

The first rankings of this season came out immediately following the end of last season, which had culminated in the Patriots' wild win over the Falcons in SuperBowl 51. In those initial, Post-SuperBowl rankings, the Top 10 included only 4 teams that remain in the Top 10 this week - the Chiefs, Steelers, Falcons, and Patriots -- who have a collective 2017 record of 46-18-0. The other members of the Top 10 in the first rankings of the year were a now-hilarious grouping of the Cardinals, Giants, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys -- who have a collective 2017 record of 41-55-0.

That goes to show that one season is not always predictive of the next one. In fact, 8 of the 12 teams going to the playoffs this year were not in the playoffs last year. The 2017 turnover is tied for the most new playoff teams from one season to the next since the playoff format change in 1990. Such big swings in performance, combined with a rash of unexpected injuries that dramatically altered the year, proved predicting the season to be rather difficult.

In my way-too-early Season Predictions (back in July), I correctly guessed 3 of the 4 AFC division champs (Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs), but totally missed on the NFC. I didn't see the Jaguars coming, and who could have predicted the Aaron Rodgers injury, or that the Giants would implode so very badly? On the other hand, while most people were forecasting that the Cowboys would go deep into the playoffs, I left them out completely and included the Eagles. Well, the Cowboys didn't make it, but the Eagles are in, proving we all get lucky in predictions sometimes.

Overall, it's been a tough -- but very fun -- year of ranking the teams in the NFL. My early prediction of a Patriots-Steelers AFC Championship game may very well come true, but my forecasted Packers-Giants NFC Championship game looks pretty embarrassing now. If I had to guess today, I'd predict we see the Vikings beat the Saints, before losing to the Patriots in the SuperBowl. Anyway, we can wrap up the recap and get to the rankings, but first allow me to say Thank You to everyone who takes the time to look over my Unscripted Power Rankings -- these receive literally hundreds of views and it's so much fun to discuss and debate them with you. Okay, ramble over.

Playoff Note: These rankings are based on an evaluation of teams as they currently stand, in consideration of the most recent week of games, and this past season as a whole. At this point, the rankings are close to being a SuperBowl projection, but are still more accurately described as reflecting who I believe would win if the teams played each other today, on a neutral field.

On the bubble:

16. Bills, 15. 49ers, 14. Cowboys

13. Seahawks, 12. Titans, 11. Chargers

The Top 10: