Tuesday, January 2, 2018

2017 Playoff Power Rankings

Unscripted NFL Power Rankings
2017 Playoffs


Previous Power Rankings:

Season-End Recap: Before the last rankings of the 2016 season and the playoffs leading to SuperBowl 52, let's take a quick look back at the year in Unscripted rankings: 

The first rankings of this season came out immediately following the end of last season, which had culminated in the Patriots' wild win over the Falcons in SuperBowl 51. In those initial, Post-SuperBowl rankings, the Top 10 included only 4 teams that remain in the Top 10 this week - the Chiefs, Steelers, Falcons, and Patriots -- who have a collective 2017 record of 46-18-0. The other members of the Top 10 in the first rankings of the year were a now-hilarious grouping of the Cardinals, Giants, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, and Cowboys -- who have a collective 2017 record of 41-55-0.

That goes to show that one season is not always predictive of the next one. In fact, 8 of the 12 teams going to the playoffs this year were not in the playoffs last year. The 2017 turnover is tied for the most new playoff teams from one season to the next since the playoff format change in 1990. Such big swings in performance, combined with a rash of unexpected injuries that dramatically altered the year, proved predicting the season to be rather difficult.

In my way-too-early Season Predictions (back in July), I correctly guessed 3 of the 4 AFC division champs (Patriots, Steelers, Chiefs), but totally missed on the NFC. I didn't see the Jaguars coming, and who could have predicted the Aaron Rodgers injury, or that the Giants would implode so very badly? On the other hand, while most people were forecasting that the Cowboys would go deep into the playoffs, I left them out completely and included the Eagles. Well, the Cowboys didn't make it, but the Eagles are in, proving we all get lucky in predictions sometimes.

Overall, it's been a tough -- but very fun -- year of ranking the teams in the NFL. My early prediction of a Patriots-Steelers AFC Championship game may very well come true, but my forecasted Packers-Giants NFC Championship game looks pretty embarrassing now. If I had to guess today, I'd predict we see the Vikings beat the Saints, before losing to the Patriots in the SuperBowl. Anyway, we can wrap up the recap and get to the rankings, but first allow me to say Thank You to everyone who takes the time to look over my Unscripted Power Rankings -- these receive literally hundreds of views and it's so much fun to discuss and debate them with you. Okay, ramble over.

Playoff Note: These rankings are based on an evaluation of teams as they currently stand, in consideration of the most recent week of games, and this past season as a whole. At this point, the rankings are close to being a SuperBowl projection, but are still more accurately described as reflecting who I believe would win if the teams played each other today, on a neutral field.

On the bubble:
16. Bills, 15. 49ers, 14. Cowboys
13. Seahawks, 12. Titans, 11. Chargers

The Top 10:

As a Playoff extra, we'll take a quick look at the Top 10 teams' progression (& regression) since the beginning of the year to get a sense of how they may be trending as they move into the playoffs. Because the charts look somewhat messy with all 10 teams included, we'll take it 5 teams at a time, which also works to emphasize the quality divide there seems to be between the Top 5 teams and the rest of the rankings.

Teams 10-6:


10. Carolina Panthers (11-5)
Last Week's Rank: 7th
Season's Best: 7th (Week 17, 13, 12, 7)



9. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
Last Week's Rank: 9th
Season's Best: 1st
(Week 7, 6, 5, 4, 3)

8. Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
Last Week's Rank: 11th
Season's Best: 2nd (Offseason, Post-SuperBowl)



7. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
Last Week's Rank: 8th
Season's Best: 6th
(Week 12)

6. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
Last Week's Rank: 4th
Season's Best: 1st (Week 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8)




Teams 5-1:


5. Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
Last Week's Rank: 6th
Season's Best: 5th
(Playoffs, Week 14, 13)

4. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
Last Week's Rank: 5th
Season's Best: 4th (Playoffs, Week 14, 12, 11)



3. Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
Last Week's Rank: 2nd
Season's Best: 1st
(Week 15)

2. Minnesota Vikings (13-3)
Last Week's Rank: 3rd
Season's Best: 2nd (Playoffs)



1. New England Patriots (13-3)
Last Week's Rank: 1st
Season's Best: 1st
(Playoffs, Week 17, 16, 14, 1, Preseason, Offseason, Post-SuperBowl)

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